395. Small Launch Vehicle Sector (SLVS): Industry Dynamics and Public Policy

Team

Research Area

2.0 Space Transportation Vehicles

Project Description

The emergence of a large number of small launch vehicle companies is among the most significant developments in space transportation today. Much is at stake over the next 5 years. It is far from clear whether this industry will realize its promise of a low-cost, highly responsive, commercially self-sustaining small launch vehicle industry which will enable a fundamental shift towards small-sat architectures. Although the innovation and investment in this sector appear impressive, it is by no means a sure thing that there will be a healthy SLVS sector in 5 years. The potential for overcapacity is high. There will almost surely be a shakeout. The market driven result may not be the best outcome from a government perspective. So we should be keen to look for opportunities for effective and appropriate policy support.

Project Outcomes

The overarching objective of this study is to provide the definitive study of the emergence and development of the SLVS in a single compendium produced at the end of the study. We believe this study will be a useful contribution to the scholarly literature on industry dynamics, entrepreneurship, technology management, and technology policy. We further believe it will inform policymakers as they work to improve policy outcomes in the dynamic commercial space sector which is only beginning to emerge today. Finally, we believe this project will be of utility to analysts and investors in the financial community in helping them understand a sector fraught with uncertainty, risk, and reward.
We are, however, cognizant of the need to provide useful analyses and tools to policymakers and scholars as we begin developing this project. Therefore, we propose the following set of tasks and deliverables over the 5 year course of the project. In the following paragraphs we will focus on deliverables for the first 3 years of the project.

Summary of Output

The study will be led by the ISU Center for Space Entrepreneurship and Commerce at FIT. This center, established in 2018 brings together several universities, financers, research institutes and the leading space education and entertainment provider to develop academic programs and research to promote the development of a robust entrepreneurial and commercial space industry.
Bryce Space and Technologies will provide expertise into the launch market and start-up space investment. Bryce is widely known for its objective, rigorous, data-driven analysis, and forecasts for clients across the global space economy. Bryce in-house data sources on launch, satellite, and space investment sectors will be critical in providing the appropriate context for the study and supporting the study throughout. Bryce maintains dozens of unique technology datasets, including investment in space and satellite ventures, space industry manufacturing, launch and satellite activities, and military R&D important to the study. Bryce will also advise and participate in the development of workshops and technical interchange meetings. Bryce has conducted workshops and technical interchange meetings for government and commercial clients including NASA, Booz Allen, and Lockheed Martin. Bryce will provide content support for workshops and related activities, facilitate external subject matter expert attendance, and provide Bryce subject matter expert to participate and provide insight into market trends and dynamics.