331. Advanced 4D Special Use Airspace Research

Team

Project Description

This research project will attempt to better understand the dynamic response process to accidents / incidents in CST operations, and how such dynamic capabilities of the NAS (including air traffic control and the aircraft themselves) might be utilized to safely continue to separate air and space vehicles while minimizing the nominal operations impact on the commercial air traffic. This research will (1) incorporate a variety of models for true wind variability and wind measurement uncertainty (for selected sites) into our modeling strategy, (2) develop distributions of accident/incident debris size and their time-accurate locations so that a model of debris tracking accuracy can be generated that can then be used for assessment of the safety of the proposed dynamic evasion procedures, (3) supply dynamic 4D compact envelopes for varying levels of wind/debris tracking capabilities (e.g. with and without real-time debris
tracking or wind measurements) and safety buffer sizes, (4) “With input from FAA ATC SMEs, develop notional operational procedures for implementing Compact 4D Envelopes in nominal scenarios, and (5) support the evaluation of the impact of these advanced procedures on air traffic flow using NASA’s FACET tool.

The work in this proposal is classified as long-term research: our work is at the point of trying to understand the major parameters and methodologies that might lead to a far more efficient use of the airspace than what we have today. For this reason, the level of modeling applied is appropriate to the early stage of this research: while the major parameters are all accounted for, there are a number of specific assumptions that will need to be revised and refined as the research transitions to a later phase, when a potential implementation may be considered.

Project Outcomes

1. Continue and complete the ongoing NAS impact simulation work,
2. Initiate additional work to study the outstanding research questions of the use of 4D envelopes (real-time separation criteria and methods, etc.),
3. Support the work that will be pursued by Stanford and MIT Lincoln Labs (starting on October 1, 2014 and in collaboration with Prof. Mykel Kochenderfer, Stanford University, and Dr. James Kuchar, MIT LL) on suborbital debris modeling, surveillance requirements, etc. to enable dynamic decision making in accident/incident situations in the NAS.
4. Reverse uncertainty propagation studies to inform the licensing process.

Summary of Output

The projected growth in demand for the use of the traditional airspace by commercial space transportation entities will make it increasingly hard to accommodate launches on a Special Use Airspace (SUA) basis. A better approach is required that is able to: (i) adapt to the fluctuating frequency of launches, (ii) accommodate uncertainties in the timing and the ascent and descent/entry trajectories of the space vehicles, (iii) ensure proper separation and safety at all times, and (iv) integrate with the FAA’s NextGen system. The three main objectives for this project are: (i) to develop plausible architectures for an Integrated Airspace Management System, (ii) to research and develop the foundation of such a system so that, from the outset, time-space probabilistic trajectories and safety assessments can be incorporated, and (iii) to create a prototype implementation for a proof-of-concept of the system that may be further developed in a follow-on project. The impact on air traffic of space operations can be significant and without approaches and procedures to minimize it, a significant negative impact on commercial space transportation will be felt.